Kitco Research · Turning Points
Fifty-five years of gold and silver, set against who ran Washington.
668 months of prices, every presidency, every midterm, every shock. Explore the record, ask the chart. Free with a Kitco account.
Record 1971-02 to 2026-09 · release 2026.10.0
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- The full interactive chart: Explore, Analogues, Highlights, Calendar, Scenario Lab.
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Eight ways into the record
8 of 13
midterms were followed by higher gold 12 months later; average +13.7%, median +15.0%.
November election month to the November a year later, monthly averages, 1974–2022.
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×111
gold’s monthly average, Feb 1971 ($39.00) to Sep 2026 ($4,319).
First and last month of the record, nominal U.S. dollars.
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+8.8%
a year for gold across the whole record, compounding month by month.
667 month-on-month changes, compounded and annualised.
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8 of 14
presidential elections were followed by higher gold 12 months later; median +3.7%.
November election month to a year later, 1972–2024, monthly averages.
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6 of 7
Fed rate-cut cycles ended with gold higher than at the first cut; median +6.1%.
FOMC easing cycles since 1990, first-cut month to last-cut month.
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5 of 7
NBER recessions ended with gold higher than at the peak month; median +4.9%.
NBER peak month to trough month, 1973–2020.
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11 of 21
tracked wars and shocks were followed by higher gold six months later; median +3.9%.
Event month to six months after, monthly averages; the chart’s event list.
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+11.1%
a year for gold during months with CPI inflation at 5% or more, against +8.2% in the other months.
150 high-inflation months, compounded and annualised.
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Presidencies
Every term since Nixon: what gold and silver did from inauguration to inauguration.
Congress and midterms
Unified or divided government, and the twelve months after each midterm.
Wars and shocks
U.S. operations, 9/11, Lehman, COVID: the three months after, and a year on.
Rates and inflation
Fed funds cycles, real yields and the inflation dead zone.
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Method and sources
Monthly averages in nominal U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Political periods run from inauguration to inauguration; midterm and election effects are measured from the election month. Every figure on this page lists its formula in the chart's Methods panel. “During” and “after” describe timing, never cause.
Questions
- Is this advice?
- No. Kitco Research describes what happened in the record. It never forecasts prices or tells you what to do.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Monthly averages of gold and silver since 1971 with public macro series, assembled and checked by the Kitco research desk; every figure on this page carries its method.
- What does it cost?
- Nothing. Create a Kitco account and the whole chart, including Ask the chart, is open.
- Can I use my Kitco forum account?
- Yes. Sign in with the same e-mail and password, or use the Google or Facebook sign-in you already use on kitco.com.
Kitco Research is research, not investment advice. Past prices do not predict future prices. Terms.